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Understanding markets

Every market asks a question and lets you bet on the answer. They come in three shapes. Once you can spot which is which, you can read any market on Kohana at a glance.

Yes or no

The simplest shape. Two outcomes, and their prices always add up to 100%.

MACROYes / No

Will the Fed cut rates this month?

Yes62%
No38%
All outcomes add up to 100%

If Yes trades at 62%, No is the other 38%. They're two sides of the same coin, so pick the side you believe and you're in.

Pick the winner

When there's more than one possible answer, each gets its own price. Together they still add up to 100%.

FOOTBALLMulti-outcome

Who wins the Premier League?

Arsenal41%
Man City33%
Liverpool19%
Other7%
All outcomes add up to 100%

The favourite carries the highest price and the smallest payoff. The long shots are cheap, and they pay big if they land. You can back one or spread across several.

Somewhere in a range

Some questions aren't yes or no, they're a number. A range market settles on where that number lands between a floor and a ceiling.

MARKETSRange

Where does the S&P 500 close on Friday?

6,030
5,8006,200
Your payout scales with where it lands

Instead of right-or-wrong, your payout scales with how close you were. The more precisely you call it, the more you make.

Reading any market

Whatever the shape, every market page shows you the same things:

  • The question, and exactly how it resolves.
  • The live prices, which are the crowd's odds.
  • The chart, the order book, and the most recent bets.

Read the fine print first

Two markets can look identical and resolve completely differently. Always check what counts as a win, and which source settles it, before you bet.

Trade responsibly. 18+. Kohana is a regulated prediction market — predictions involve risk to your funds.